{"id":6895,"date":"2026-08-25T13:40:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T13:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/prediction-market-platform-selector\/"},"modified":"2026-08-26T07:42:50","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T07:42:50","slug":"prediction-market-platform-selector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/prediction-market-platform-selector\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Market Platform Selector and Contract Risk Checker"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>\n.tm-sp-article{--ink:#111827;--muted:#4b5563;--line:#d1d5db;--paper:#fff;--soft:#f7f7f5;--accent:#f5c542;color:var(--ink);font-size:18px;line-height:1.65;max-width:920px;margin:0 auto}.tm-sp-article *{box-sizing:border-box}.tm-sp-article a{color:#174ea6;text-decoration-thickness:1px;text-underline-offset:3px}.tm-sp-article :focus-visible{outline:3px solid #174ea6;outline-offset:3px}.tm-answer-first,.tm-guidance,.tm-risk-section,.tm-cta,.tm-editorial,.tm-interactive-tool{border:1px 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0}\n.tm-nd-chip,.tm-factor-pill{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;border-radius:999px;background:#f3f4f6;color:#111827;padding:5px 8px;font-size:10px;font-weight:750;line-height:1.2}\n.tm-nd-best,.tm-nd-watch{margin:7px 0;font-size:13px;line-height:1.4}\n.tm-nd-watch{color:#4b5563}\n.tm-nd-breakdown{margin:10px 0 14px;border-top:1px solid #e5e7eb;border-bottom:1px solid #e5e7eb;padding:8px 0;font-size:12px;line-height:1.4}\n.tm-nd-breakdown summary{cursor:pointer;font-weight:800;color:#174ea6}\n.tm-nd-breakdown dl{margin:8px 0}\n.tm-nd-factor-row{padding:8px 0;border-top:1px solid #eef0f2}\n.tm-nd-factor-row dt{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;gap:8px;font-weight:800}\n.tm-nd-factor-row dt span{white-space:nowrap;color:#4b5563}\n.tm-nd-factor-row dd{margin:4px 0 0;color:#374151;overflow-wrap:anywhere}\n.tm-nd-factor-row p,.tm-nd-confidence,.tm-nd-eligibility,.tm-nd-arithmetic,.tm-nd-overall-rationale{margin:5px 0}\n.tm-nd-scope{margin:8px 0;padding:8px 10px;border-left:4px solid #f5c542;background:#fff8d9;color:#374151;font-size:12px;line-height:1.4}\n.tm-nd-card .tm-nd-cta{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;width:100%;min-height:40px;margin-top:auto;border-radius:999px;background:#f5c542;color:#111827;text-decoration:none;font-weight:850}\n.tm-nd-group-note{margin:16px 0 0;padding:14px 16px;border-left:5px solid #f5c542;background:#f7f7f5;color:#374151;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45}\n@media(max-width:900px){.tm-ranked-card-grid{grid-template-columns:repeat(2,minmax(0,1fr))}}\n@media(max-width:600px){.tm-ranked-card-grid{grid-template-columns:1fr}.tm-nd-card{padding:14px}}<\/style>\n<article class=\"tm-sp-article\" data-page-role=\"tool\" data-vertical=\"prediction_market\">\n<h1>Prediction Market Platform Selector and Contract Risk Checker<\/h1>\n<p class=\"tm-meta\"><strong>Last verified:<\/strong> 2026-08-22. <strong>Primary query:<\/strong> prediction market platform selector. <strong>Methodology:<\/strong> <a data-internal-slug=\"prediction-market-platform-methodology\" data-link-relationship=\"methodology\" href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/prediction-market-platform-methodology\/\">Prediction market platform methodology<\/a><\/p>\n<aside class=\"tm-editorial\" aria-label=\"Editorial information\">\n<h2>Editorial information<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Organizational author and reviewer:<\/strong> Token Metrics Research Team<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last verified:<\/strong> 2026-08-22. <strong>Update cadence:<\/strong> Quarterly and after a material fee, access, product, regulatory, or resolution change.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/editorial-policy\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Read the Token Metrics editorial policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This vertical includes 14 new pages and one factual refresh. The 14 new pages contain no affiliate links, referral links, or sponsored rankings. This page contains no paid placement.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<section class=\"tm-answer-first\" data-citation-required=\"true\">\n<h2>Answer first<\/h2>\n<p>Select the venue only after you pass eligibility. For an eligible international crypto-native workflow, consider Polymarket international. For an eligible designated contract market account, compare Polymarket US and Kalshi at the exact contract level. For an eligible Interactive Brokers client who wants published-outcome event contracts, consider ForecastEx. Return no-platform when venue, access, rules, cost, funding, or exit cannot be verified.<\/p>\n<p>This tool does not select an outcome or estimate what will happen. It checks whether a contract is clear and executable enough to research. Similar headlines do not make contracts identical. The selector compares definitions, sources, deadlines, correction rules, settlement, price, spread, depth, fees, collateral, and account restrictions before it returns a fit.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Evidence:<\/strong> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-geographic-restrictions\" href=\"https:\/\/help.polymarket.com\/en\/articles\/13364163-geographic-restrictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 1: Polymarket Geographic Restrictions from Polymarket\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-dcm\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/IndustryOversight\/IndustryFilings\/TradingOrganizations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 2: CFTC Trading Organizations: Designated Contract Markets from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-resolution\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/concepts\/resolution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 3: Polymarket Resolution from Polymarket\">[3]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-regulation\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 4: How Is Kalshi Regulated? from Kalshi\">[4]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-international\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/14026044-can-i-trade-on-kalshi-from-outside-the-united-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 5: Can I Trade on Kalshi from Outside the United States? from Kalshi\">[5]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<aside class=\"tm-factor-card\" data-card-kind=\"non-ranked-decision\" data-decision-card=\"prediction-selector-decision\">\n<h2>Token Metrics contract decision gates<\/h2>\n<div class=\"tm-factor-pills\"><span class=\"tm-factor-pill\">Venue and contract identity<\/span><span class=\"tm-factor-pill\">Current user eligibility<\/span><span class=\"tm-factor-pill\">Resolution source and deadline<\/span><span class=\"tm-factor-pill\">Executable quote and full cost<\/span><span class=\"tm-factor-pill\">Full-loss acceptance<\/span><\/div>\n<p class=\"tm-factor-note\">A venue fit does not select an outcome side. Stop when the contract, access, rule, quote, or loss condition is unresolved.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<section class=\"tm-decision-section\">\n<h2>Decision table<\/h2>\n<table class=\"tm-decision-table\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Decision<\/th>\n<th>Practical guidance<\/th>\n<th>What to verify<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Eligible international crypto workflow<\/td>\n<td>Polymarket international shortlist<\/td>\n<td>Check actual location, geographic rules, wallet funding, market fee, order book, resolution source, and oracle dispute path. <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-geographic-restrictions\" href=\"https:\/\/help.polymarket.com\/en\/articles\/13364163-geographic-restrictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 1: Polymarket Geographic Restrictions from Polymarket\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/trading\/fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 7: Polymarket Fees from Polymarket\">[7]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-resolution\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/concepts\/resolution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 3: Polymarket Resolution from Polymarket\">[3]<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Eligible US DCM workflow<\/td>\n<td>Polymarket US or Kalshi shortlist<\/td>\n<td>Identify the exchange and compare the exact contract filing or rules, access, collateral, fee, source, and book. <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-dcm\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/IndustryOversight\/IndustryFilings\/TradingOrganizations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 2: CFTC Trading Organizations: Designated Contract Markets from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-contract-filing\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/filings\/orgrules\/rules03262642001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 8: Polymarket US Athletic Tie Contract Filing from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\">[8]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-regulation\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 4: How Is Kalshi Regulated? from Kalshi\">[4]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823805-fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 9: Kalshi Fees from Kalshi\">[9]<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Eligible brokerage workflow<\/td>\n<td>ForecastEx through IBKR shortlist<\/td>\n<td>Confirm affiliate, age, country, permissions, exchange, contract, fee-inclusive price, and published source. <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-event-contract-costs\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/en\/pricing\/commissions-events.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 10: Interactive Brokers Prediction Market Commissions from Interactive Brokers\">[10]<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Any unresolved blocker<\/td>\n<td>No-platform result<\/td>\n<td>Stop when current eligibility, governing rules, source, total cost, collateral, or executable exit is unclear.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-interactive-tool\" id=\"tm-tool-prediction-market-platform-selector\" data-tool-kind=\"prediction\">\n<h2>Interactive prediction market venue and contract risk checker<\/h2>\n<p>Choose the exact venue path, then answer every stop gate. The result is deterministic, educational, and local to this page. It makes no external calls, does not predict an event, and does not provide investment advice.<\/p>\n<form id=\"tm-tool-prediction-market-platform-selector-form\" novalidate aria-describedby=\"tm-tool-prediction-market-platform-selector-error\">\n<fieldset data-tool-primary>\n<legend>1. Which exact venue or access path are you reviewing?<\/legend>\n<p><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"venue_path\" value=\"polymarket-international\" required> Polymarket international<\/label><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"venue_path\" value=\"polymarket-us\" required> Polymarket US<\/label><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"venue_path\" value=\"kalshi\" required> Kalshi<\/label><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"venue_path\" value=\"forecastex\" required> ForecastEx through Interactive Brokers<\/label><\/fieldset>\n<fieldset data-tool-gate=\"venue\">\n<legend>2. Can you name the exchange, product, and exact contract ID?<\/legend>\n<p><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"venue\" value=\"yes\" required> Yes<\/label><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"venue\" value=\"no\" required> No<\/label><\/fieldset>\n<fieldset data-tool-gate=\"eligibility\">\n<legend>3. Is the actual user eligible for this venue and contract now?<\/legend>\n<p><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"eligibility\" value=\"yes\" required> Yes<\/label><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"eligibility\" value=\"no\" required> No<\/label><\/fieldset>\n<fieldset data-tool-gate=\"rules\">\n<legend>4. Can you explain the outcome, source, deadline, corrections, and settlement?<\/legend>\n<p><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"rules\" value=\"yes\" required> Yes<\/label><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"rules\" value=\"no\" required> No<\/label><\/fieldset>\n<fieldset data-tool-gate=\"quote\">\n<legend>5. Can you verify executable price, depth, fees, funding, and exit cost?<\/legend>\n<p><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"quote\" value=\"yes\" required> Yes<\/label><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"quote\" value=\"no\" required> No<\/label><\/fieldset>\n<fieldset data-tool-gate=\"loss\">\n<legend>6. Can you accept a zero settlement and a delayed or unavailable early exit?<\/legend>\n<p><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"loss\" value=\"yes\" required> Yes<\/label><label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"loss\" value=\"no\" required> No<\/label><\/fieldset>\n<p class=\"tm-tool-error\" id=\"tm-tool-prediction-market-platform-selector-error\" role=\"alert\" tabindex=\"-1\" hidden>\n<div class=\"tm-tool-actions\"><button type=\"submit\" data-tool-submit>Check venue research fit<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-tool-reset>Reset<\/button><\/div>\n<\/form>\n<section class=\"tm-tool-result\" id=\"tm-tool-prediction-market-platform-selector-result\" role=\"status\" aria-live=\"polite\" aria-atomic=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\" hidden>\n<h3 data-result-title><\/h3>\n<p data-result-summary>\n<h4>Rationale<\/h4>\n<ul data-result-rationale><\/ul>\n<h4>Risk warnings<\/h4>\n<ul data-result-warnings><\/ul>\n<p class=\"tm-tool-note\">This result is a research workflow check, not investment advice.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><script data-tm-tool-script=\"prediction\">(function(){\"use strict\";const root=document.getElementById(\"tm-tool-prediction-market-platform-selector\");const config={\"primaryName\":\"venue_path\",\"recommendations\":{\"polymarket-international\":{\"title\":\"Continue researching Polymarket international\",\"summary\":\"The venue path is the international product, so use its current geographic, fee, order-book, and oracle-resolution evidence only.\"},\"polymarket-us\":{\"title\":\"Continue researching Polymarket US\",\"summary\":\"The venue path is the US designated contract market, so use the exact US contract rules and do not import international protocol mechanics.\"},\"kalshi\":{\"title\":\"Continue researching Kalshi\",\"summary\":\"The venue path is Kalshi, so use the current account eligibility, market rules, order preview, and contract-specific source.\"},\"forecastex\":{\"title\":\"Continue researching ForecastEx through IBKR\",\"summary\":\"The venue path is ForecastEx through Interactive Brokers, so confirm the account affiliate, exchange, contract, source, and fee-inclusive quote.\"}},\"stopReasons\":{\"venue\":\"Venue or contract identity is unresolved.\",\"eligibility\":\"Current user or contract eligibility is unresolved.\",\"rules\":\"The governing rules cannot be explained.\",\"quote\":\"The executable quote or total cost is unresolved.\",\"loss\":\"The full-loss or exit condition is not accepted.\"},\"warnings\":[\"A venue fit is not a recommendation to trade or to choose an outcome side.\",\"A contract can settle at zero, and an early exit can be costly or unavailable.\",\"Verify current in-app access and quote. Stop if venue, eligibility, rules, cost, collateral, or settlement evidence changes.\"]};const form=root.querySelector(\"form\");const error=root.querySelector(\".tm-tool-error\");const result=root.querySelector(\".tm-tool-result\");const title=result.querySelector(\"[data-result-title]\");const summary=result.querySelector(\"[data-result-summary]\");const rationale=result.querySelector(\"[data-result-rationale]\");const warnings=result.querySelector(\"[data-result-warnings]\");const firstControl=form.querySelector(\"input\");function items(target,values){target.replaceChildren(...values.map(function(value){const item=document.createElement(\"li\");item.textContent=value;return item;}));}form.addEventListener(\"submit\",function(event){event.preventDefault();const groups=Array.from(form.querySelectorAll(\"fieldset\"));const missing=groups.find(function(group){return !group.querySelector(\"input:checked\");});if(missing){result.hidden=true;result.removeAttribute(\"data-outcome\");error.textContent=\"Complete every labeled control before viewing a result.\";error.hidden=false;missing.querySelector(\"input\").focus();return;}error.hidden=true;error.textContent=\"\";const data=new FormData(form);const blockers=[];Object.keys(config.stopReasons).forEach(function(name){if(data.get(name)!==\"yes\"){blockers.push(config.stopReasons[name]);}});if(blockers.length){result.dataset.outcome=\"no-platform\";title.textContent=\"No platform: stop here\";summary.textContent=\"One or more required risk gates failed. Do not continue until each missing condition is resolved with current evidence.\";items(rationale,blockers);}else{const choice=String(data.get(config.primaryName));const recommendation=config.recommendations[choice];result.dataset.outcome=choice;title.textContent=recommendation.title;summary.textContent=recommendation.summary;items(rationale,[\"Every required stop gate was answered yes.\",\"The shortlist follows the primary research input you selected.\"]);}items(warnings,config.warnings);result.hidden=false;result.focus();});form.querySelector(\"[data-tool-reset]\").addEventListener(\"click\",function(){form.reset();error.hidden=true;error.textContent=\"\";result.hidden=true;result.removeAttribute(\"data-outcome\");title.textContent=\"\";summary.textContent=\"\";rationale.replaceChildren();warnings.replaceChildren();firstControl.focus();});})();<\/script><\/p>\n<section class=\"tm-guidance\">\n<h2>Best for and avoid if<\/h2>\n<div class=\"tm-guidance-grid\">\n<div class=\"tm-best-for\">\n<h3>Best for<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Users who want an explicit stop before funding or trading an unclear event contract.<\/li>\n<li>Readers comparing similar topics across venues without assuming the rules match.<\/li>\n<li>Teams documenting eligibility, source, cost, and liquidity evidence for each contract decision.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tm-avoid-if\">\n<h3>Avoid if<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>You want the selector to predict the event or recommend a side.<\/li>\n<li>You will use a related venue&#x27;s legal, fee, or resolution documents to fill an evidence gap.<\/li>\n<li>You cannot tolerate the entire contract price going to zero or settlement taking longer than expected.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-analysis-section\" data-citation-required=\"true\">\n<h2>Gate 1: identify the venue<\/h2>\n<p>Write the exchange entity, product, distributor, domain or app, and contract ID. A Polymarket label must resolve to international or US. An IBKR contract must name ForecastEx, Kalshi, CME, or another listed venue. A Kalshi contract must link to its own market rules. If the venue cannot be named, the selector stops.<\/p>\n<p>This prevents scope leakage. International Polymarket oracle documentation does not govern Polymarket US. An IBKR interface does not make every displayed contract ForecastEx. A regulator designation does not reveal the exact user&#x27;s access. Venue identity is the key that selects every later source.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources for this section:<\/strong> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-dcm\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/IndustryOversight\/IndustryFilings\/TradingOrganizations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 2: CFTC Trading Organizations: Designated Contract Markets from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-resolution\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/concepts\/resolution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 3: Polymarket Resolution from Polymarket\">[3]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-regulation\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 4: How Is Kalshi Regulated? from Kalshi\">[4]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-analysis-section\" data-citation-required=\"true\">\n<h2>Gate 2: verify user and contract eligibility<\/h2>\n<p>Check country, state or province, age, residence, identity, account affiliate, agreement, funding method, and contract-specific restriction. Do this with the current official product for the actual user. Do not treat public market data as permission to trade, and do not propose a location workaround.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket international publishes geographic restrictions. Kalshi describes broad international access with conditions. IBKR says prediction-market eligibility varies and includes age and contract limits. These facts support a live check, not a permanent global availability table. Any mismatch returns no-platform.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources for this section:<\/strong> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-geographic-restrictions\" href=\"https:\/\/help.polymarket.com\/en\/articles\/13364163-geographic-restrictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 1: Polymarket Geographic Restrictions from Polymarket\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-international\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/14026044-can-i-trade-on-kalshi-from-outside-the-united-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 5: Can I Trade on Kalshi from Outside the United States? from Kalshi\">[5]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-analysis-section\" data-citation-required=\"true\">\n<h2>Gate 3: translate the contract<\/h2>\n<p>Rewrite the economic question in plain language. Include the qualifying event, exclusions, measurement window, time zone, source, source hierarchy, correction rule, void condition, trading cutoff, settlement path, and dispute process. Compare this translation with the view you want to express.<\/p>\n<p>If two people can read the rule and reach materially different definitions, the contract has interpretation risk. That does not always make it unusable, but the risk must be priced and sized. If the governing source is not accessible or the correction policy is missing for a revision-prone indicator, return no-platform.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources for this section:<\/strong> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-resolution\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/concepts\/resolution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 3: Polymarket Resolution from Polymarket\">[3]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-contract-filing\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/filings\/orgrules\/rules03262642001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 8: Polymarket US Athletic Tie Contract Filing from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\">[8]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-contract-filing\" href=\"https:\/\/assets.kalshi.com\/regulatory\/product-certifications\/CONTROL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 11: Kalshi CONTROL Product Certification from KalshiEX LLC\">[11]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"forecastex-course\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/trading-course\/forecastex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 12: Economic Forecast Contracts from ForecastEx from Interactive Brokers Campus\">[12]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-analysis-section\">\n<h2>Gate 4: inspect executable price<\/h2>\n<p>Record best bid, best offer, spread, depth, recent fills, and estimated full-size execution. Do not use midpoint or platform-wide volume. For a multi-outcome event, make sure the side and market ID are exact. Compare contracts only when their economic rules are the same.<\/p>\n<p>Set a maximum entry price and decide whether a limit order or immediate fill is more important. Then inspect the likely early-exit side. If the trade only works at a displayed price with no available size, it does not pass. If the position assumes an early exit but the book is thin, size for settlement instead or stop.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-analysis-section\" data-citation-required=\"true\">\n<h2>Gate 5: calculate total cost<\/h2>\n<p>Use the order preview and current official schedule. Polymarket international taker fees can vary by category and probability. Kalshi says its fees depend on expected earnings and some markets can have maker fees. IBKR lists exchange and broker charges by venue and account context. Add spread, impact, funding, payment, conversion, network, withdrawal, and exit costs.<\/p>\n<p>When two sources appear to conflict, prefer the exact fee-inclusive quote for the current account and preserve the discrepancy for editorial review. Do not choose the lowest visible number from different product contexts. An unresolved material cost returns no-platform.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources for this section:<\/strong> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/trading\/fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 7: Polymarket Fees from Polymarket\">[7]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823805-fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 9: Kalshi Fees from Kalshi\">[9]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-event-contract-costs\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/en\/pricing\/commissions-events.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 10: Interactive Brokers Prediction Market Commissions from Interactive Brokers\">[10]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"forecastex-scaletrader\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/en\/trading\/scaletrader-forecast-contracts.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 13: Using ScaleTrader for ForecastEx Contracts from Interactive Brokers\">[13]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-analysis-section\" data-citation-required=\"true\">\n<h2>Gate 6: confirm collateral and loss<\/h2>\n<p>Identify the cash or token used as collateral, where it is held, how the position settles, how funds are withdrawn, and which providers or chains are required. Confirm whether the contract is fully at risk and how a winning unit becomes one dollar. Separate protocol statements from DCM or brokerage account rules.<\/p>\n<p>Set the maximum dollar loss before choosing a side. Assume the contract can settle at zero and that exit liquidity can vanish. Include funding and conversion costs in the loss budget. If the user cannot keep the position separate from essential cash or a broader crypto wallet, return no-platform.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources for this section:<\/strong> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/trading\/fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 7: Polymarket Fees from Polymarket\">[7]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-contract-filing\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/filings\/orgrules\/rules03262642001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 8: Polymarket US Athletic Tie Contract Filing from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\">[8]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-analysis-section\" data-citation-required=\"true\">\n<h2>Result logic<\/h2>\n<p>Return Polymarket international only when international eligibility, wallet flow, rule set, cost, and market liquidity pass. Return Polymarket US only when the specific US venue and contract evidence pass. Return Kalshi when its member, contract, fee, and book checks pass. Return ForecastEx when IBKR eligibility, venue, published source, fee-inclusive quote, and account flow pass.<\/p>\n<p>Return no-platform for every other case. A no-platform result can be temporary. Record the missing evidence, official page to recheck, and date. It must not be overridden by an industry volume claim, a promotion, a famous event, or a strong opinion about the outcome.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources for this section:<\/strong> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-dcm\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/IndustryOversight\/IndustryFilings\/TradingOrganizations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 2: CFTC Trading Organizations: Designated Contract Markets from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-regulation\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 4: How Is Kalshi Regulated? from Kalshi\">[4]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-checklist\">\n<h2>Decision checklist<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Name the venue and contract:<\/strong> Record exchange, distributor, product, contract ID, and governing documents.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Verify actual eligibility:<\/strong> Check location, age, residence, identity, account affiliate, payment, and contract access.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Translate the rules:<\/strong> Write the outcome, exclusions, source, time zone, corrections, void terms, and dispute path.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Capture executable price:<\/strong> Use bid, offer, depth, full-size fill, and early-exit conditions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Calculate total cost:<\/strong> Include every exchange, broker, spread, impact, funding, conversion, network, and exit charge.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Confirm collateral and withdrawal:<\/strong> Understand where funds sit and how settlement reaches the account.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Return no-platform when unclear:<\/strong> Do not fill a failed gate with a claim from another venue or an old review.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-risk-section\">\n<h2>Risk review<\/h2>\n<table class=\"tm-risk-table\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Risk<\/th>\n<th>Why it matters<\/th>\n<th>Control<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Wrong venue<\/td>\n<td>A related brand or broker screen can point to a different exchange.<\/td>\n<td>Bind every contract to its governing entity and rules.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Eligibility assumption<\/td>\n<td>Public access or a general country statement can hide account and contract limits.<\/td>\n<td>Verify the current product for the actual user. <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-geographic-restrictions\" href=\"https:\/\/help.polymarket.com\/en\/articles\/13364163-geographic-restrictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 1: Polymarket Geographic Restrictions from Polymarket\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-international\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/14026044-can-i-trade-on-kalshi-from-outside-the-united-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 5: Can I Trade on Kalshi from Outside the United States? from Kalshi\">[5]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Rule mismatch<\/td>\n<td>Similar titles can define different economic outcomes.<\/td>\n<td>Translate and compare every rule before treating contracts as alternatives.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Non-executable quote<\/td>\n<td>A displayed probability can lack size at that price.<\/td>\n<td>Use current spread and depth and model an early exit.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Cost omission<\/td>\n<td>Different fee models and funding paths can reverse a comparison.<\/td>\n<td>Use the exact fee-inclusive order and all-in cost. <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/trading\/fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 7: Polymarket Fees from Polymarket\">[7]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823805-fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 9: Kalshi Fees from Kalshi\">[9]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-event-contract-costs\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/en\/pricing\/commissions-events.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 10: Interactive Brokers Prediction Market Commissions from Interactive Brokers\">[10]<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>These controls reduce avoidable errors. They do not remove market, contract, custody, or legal risk.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-methodology-summary\">\n<h2>How this page was evaluated<\/h2>\n<p>The scorecard uses the category-relative v2 continuous 0-100 model, calibrated August 25, 2026. Each required factor receives an evidence-backed score across the full range, then its audited vertical weight is applied. Missing evidence is stored as unknown and blocks publication of the overall category score; it never becomes numeric product weakness. Score confidence and current user eligibility are reported separately. Use the methodology link above for the full rubric. A category score is a decision aid, not universal user suitability or a promise of profit or platform safety. We recheck volatile product, fee, access, and rule facts against the cited pages before release.<\/p>\n<table class=\"tm-methodology-table\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Criterion<\/th>\n<th>Weight<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Contract Resolution Quality<\/td>\n<td>25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Execution Liquidity<\/td>\n<td>25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Fees Total Cost<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Market Breadth Relevance<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Funding Custody Settlement<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tools Decision Support<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/section>\n<nav class=\"tm-related\" aria-label=\"Related guides\">\n<h2>Continue your research<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a data-internal-slug=\"best-crypto-prediction-markets-2026\" data-link-relationship=\"hub\" href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/best-crypto-prediction-markets-2026\/\">Best prediction market platforms<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a data-internal-slug=\"polymarket-review\" data-link-relationship=\"review\" href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/polymarket-review\/\">Polymarket review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a data-internal-slug=\"kalshi-review\" data-link-relationship=\"review\" href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/kalshi-review\/\">Kalshi review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a data-internal-slug=\"forecastex-review\" data-link-relationship=\"review\" href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/forecastex-review\/\">ForecastEx review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a data-internal-slug=\"prediction-markets-go-mainstream-2026\" data-link-relationship=\"supporting_analysis\" href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/prediction-markets-go-mainstream-2026\/\">Prediction markets go mainstream<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a data-internal-slug=\"crypto-prediction-markets-guide-2025\" data-link-relationship=\"protected_supporting\" href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/crypto-prediction-markets-guide-2025\/\">Prediction markets guide<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a data-internal-slug=\"prediction-markets-2\" data-link-relationship=\"protected_supporting\" href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/prediction-markets-2\/\">Prediction market legal guide<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/nav>\n<aside class=\"tm-cta\" data-cta-id=\"prediction-market-context\">\n<h2>Separate the event contract from the crypto trade<\/h2>\n<p>A prediction-market price is one input. Use Token Metrics research when the event also affects a crypto asset, and set a separate risk limit for each position.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/research\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Continue with independent market research<\/a><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<section class=\"tm-faq\">\n<h2>Frequently asked questions<\/h2>\n<h3>Which platform should a US user choose?<\/h3>\n<p>First verify the actual account and contract. Compare Polymarket US and Kalshi as separate designated contract markets, and ForecastEx through IBKR when eligible. Do not use international Polymarket documentation as US access proof. <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-dcm\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/IndustryOversight\/IndustryFilings\/TradingOrganizations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 2: CFTC Trading Organizations: Designated Contract Markets from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-regulation\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 4: How Is Kalshi Regulated? from Kalshi\">[4]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>Which platform should an international user choose?<\/h3>\n<p>Check each product&#x27;s current country, residence, identity, payment, and contract limits. Polymarket international, Kalshi, and IBKR can have different access rules for the same person. <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"polymarket-geographic-restrictions\" href=\"https:\/\/help.polymarket.com\/en\/articles\/13364163-geographic-restrictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 1: Polymarket Geographic Restrictions from Polymarket\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"kalshi-international\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/14026044-can-i-trade-on-kalshi-from-outside-the-united-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 5: Can I Trade on Kalshi from Outside the United States? from Kalshi\">[5]<\/a> <a class=\"tm-source-citation\" data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" aria-label=\"Reviewed source 6: IBKR Prediction Markets from Interactive Brokers\">[6]<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>What makes the selector return no platform?<\/h3>\n<p>Any unresolved venue, eligibility, rule, source, executable price, total cost, collateral, withdrawal, or loss-limit check produces no-platform.<\/p>\n<h3>Does the selector predict which side will win?<\/h3>\n<p>No. It evaluates whether the venue and contract are understandable and executable enough to research. It does not forecast the event or recommend an outcome.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"tm-sources\">\n<h2>Sources checked<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"polymarket-geographic-restrictions\" href=\"https:\/\/help.polymarket.com\/en\/articles\/13364163-geographic-restrictions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Polymarket Geographic Restrictions<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Polymarket | First party help | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> Polymarket publishes geographic restrictions for access to its international product and instructs users to follow applicable location rules. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> Restrictions can change and public market data does not prove trading eligibility. Verify actual current location and product access without using a workaround.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-dcm\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/IndustryOversight\/IndustryFilings\/TradingOrganizations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>CFTC Trading Organizations: Designated Contract Markets<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission | Regulator registry | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> The CFTC lists QCX LLC doing business as Polymarket US as a designated contract market, designated July 9, 2025. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> The designation does not make every international Polymarket market a CFTC-regulated US contract or prove universal user access.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"polymarket-resolution\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/concepts\/resolution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Polymarket Resolution<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Polymarket | First party documentation | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> Polymarket&#x27;s international protocol documentation says markets use predefined resolution rules and UMA&#x27;s optimistic oracle, with a two-hour challenge period and a dispute path that can take four to six days. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> These mechanics apply to the international protocol documentation. Do not apply them to Polymarket US DCM contracts without contract-specific proof.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"kalshi-regulation\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>How Is Kalshi Regulated?<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Kalshi | First party help with regulator reference | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> Kalshi says it is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, and the CFTC DCM list independently confirms Kalshi&#x27;s designation. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> DCM status does not remove contract-specific, state, age, eligibility, litigation, liquidity, or loss risk.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"kalshi-international\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/14026044-can-i-trade-on-kalshi-from-outside-the-united-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Can I Trade on Kalshi from Outside the United States?<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Kalshi | First party help | Published: 2026-03-20<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> Kalshi says it is available in many countries subject to its member agreement, identity verification, residency, local restrictions, and differing payment options. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> Broad availability language does not prove that every country, payment rail, account, or contract is eligible. Verify current access in-app.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"ibkr-prediction-markets\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>IBKR Prediction Markets<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Interactive Brokers | First party broker | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> Interactive Brokers provides one interface for event contracts from Kalshi, ForecastEx, and CME, says eligible clients must be at least 21, and limits ForecastEx election contracts to eligible US residents. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> Eligibility varies by affiliate, country, account, and contract. A broker interface does not make every listed contract a ForecastEx product.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"polymarket-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/trading\/fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Polymarket Fees<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Polymarket | First party documentation | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> Polymarket says makers are not charged fees, taker fees vary by category and probability, and geopolitics or world-events markets are fee-free. Deposit or withdrawal intermediaries may still charge. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> Fee parameters can change by market. Keep international protocol fees separate from Polymarket US products and verify the current order quote.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"polymarket-us-contract-filing\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/filings\/orgrules\/rules03262642001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Polymarket US Athletic Tie Contract Filing<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission | Regulator filing | Published: 2026-03-26<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> The filing describes one Polymarket US athletic tie contract family with $1 contracts, full at-risk collateral, official source hierarchies, settlement procedures, and participant restrictions. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> This filing concerns a specific contract family. Do not generalize its source, restriction, or settlement language to every Polymarket US product.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"kalshi-fees\" href=\"https:\/\/help.kalshi.com\/en\/articles\/13823805-fees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Kalshi Fees<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Kalshi | First party documentation | Published: 2026-04-19<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> Kalshi says transaction fees depend on expected earnings and that some markets can also have maker fees, with the applicable fee displayed in the product and current schedule. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> Do not reduce Kalshi fees to one universal percentage. Verify the exact market, side, size, account, and current in-app quote.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"ibkr-event-contract-costs\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/en\/pricing\/commissions-events.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Interactive Brokers Prediction Market Commissions<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Interactive Brokers | First party broker fee schedule | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> IBKR&#x27;s direct-client schedule lists no IBKR commission plus a one-cent exchange fee for ForecastEx contracts, and one-cent IBKR commission plus a one-cent exchange fee for Kalshi and CME contracts. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> Rates can change and introduced or advised accounts may pay more. Verify the exact fee-inclusive in-app quote.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"kalshi-contract-filing\" href=\"https:\/\/assets.kalshi.com\/regulatory\/product-certifications\/CONTROL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Kalshi CONTROL Product Certification<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">KalshiEX LLC | First party exchange product filing | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> The product certification illustrates that Kalshi contracts use contract-specific definitions, source language, trading conditions, and settlement procedures. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> This filing is evidence for its own contract family, not a universal description of every Kalshi market. Read the exact contract rules.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"forecastex-course\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/trading-course\/forecastex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Economic Forecast Contracts from ForecastEx<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Interactive Brokers Campus | First party broker education | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> IBKR course material describes ForecastEx contracts designed around published economic, financial, and climate outcomes and their settlement research workflow. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> Course material is educational and contracts vary. Read the current named source, period, threshold, correction rule, and settlement terms.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a data-source-id=\"forecastex-scaletrader\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/en\/trading\/scaletrader-forecast-contracts.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><cite>Using ScaleTrader for ForecastEx Contracts<\/cite><\/a><span class=\"tm-source-meta\">Interactive Brokers | First party broker product page | Last verified: 2026-08-22<\/span><span class=\"tm-source-scope\"><strong>Scope:<\/strong> Interactive Brokers documents ScaleTrader as a way for eligible users to stage ForecastEx contract orders across price levels. <strong>Caveat:<\/strong> Scaled orders can create partial exposure, non-fill, and a changing average price. The page&#x27;s cost language does not replace the current fee-inclusive quote.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/section>\n<p><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"headline\":\"Prediction Market Platform Selector and Contract Risk Checker\",\"description\":\"Use this deterministic selector and contract risk checker to narrow Polymarket, Kalshi, ForecastEx, or no-platform fits.\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-08-22\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-08-22\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/prediction-market-platform-selector\/\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/prediction-market-platform-selector-and-contract-risk-checke-regen-1787666580918.webp\",\"width\":1408,\"height\":792,\"caption\":\"Prediction Market Platform Selector and Contract Risk Checker\"},\"author\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"Token Metrics Research Team\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/editorial-policy\/\"},\"reviewedBy\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"Token Metrics Research Team\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/editorial-policy\/\"},\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"Token Metrics\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/brand\/tm-logo-primary-black.svg\"}}},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Blog\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Prediction Market Platform Selector and Contract Risk Checker\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/tokenmetrics.com\/blog\/prediction-market-platform-selector\/\"}]},{\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Which platform should a US user choose?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"First verify the actual account and contract. 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